The success of the current Ukraine peace initiative will depend on navigating the vast gap between American hopes and Russian reality. The “art of the possible” for diplomats will be to find a compromise somewhere between the White House’s ambitious timeline and the Kremlin’s deliberate pace.
The American hope is for a rapid, decisive breakthrough. The U.S. is pushing for a summit within days, driven by a belief that the time is ripe for a deal. This optimistic outlook is a powerful engine for the process.
The Russian reality, at least as presented publicly, is one of complexity and caution. Moscow insists that a leadership summit is the end of a process, not the beginning, and requires painstaking preparation. This pragmatic, if somewhat obstructionist, view serves as a check on American ambition.
Bridging this gap will require skillful diplomacy. It may involve a series of preliminary talks to satisfy Russia’s need for “thoroughness” while still moving quickly enough to meet Washington’s desire for results. Finding this middle ground is the central task for negotiators aiming to turn the possibility of peace into a reality.