The United States could emerge as a key beneficiary of a new trade truce with China, just as the world’s top importer begins to shun Russian oil. As China looks for new supplies, US producers may be positioned to fill the gap.
Chinese refiners are currently in full retreat from Russian crude. This “buyers’ strike” is driven by new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and a UK/EU blacklisting of Yulong Petrochemical that has terrified private “teapot” refiners.
The impact on Moscow is clear and aligns with Western policy goals. Prices for Russia’s ESPO crude have plunged, and an estimated 400,000 barrels per day of trade are affected.
However, a major “muddle” remains. A high-stakes summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping concluded with a conspicuous silence on the oil issue, leaving refiners guessing about the official diplomatic stance.
The situation is further complicated by domestic logistics. Many of China’s “teapot” refiners are running low on crude import quotas, which limits their purchasing power for the rest of the year.