There are currently two Nvidias. One is a $5.05 trillion giant, the indispensable engine of an AI revolution. The other is a speculative bubble, bloated by hype and “circular” deals, and warned against by the IMF and Bank of England. The market is now trying to figure out which one is real.
The “boom” narrative points to the giant. This Nvidia grew by $1 trillion in three months. It has a $500 billion order book and a $100 billion deal with OpenAI. It is partnered with Uber, Nokia, and the US government, and supported by President Trump. This giant is real.
The “bust” narrative points to the bubble. This Nvidia is the subject of formal warnings from the world’s top financial institutions. This company’s valuation is propped up by “circular” deals, like the one with OpenAI.
The bubble-watchers’ key evidence is the lack of real-world profits, with analysts noting that “nearly all AI pilot programs in businesses fail.” This suggests the giant’s foundation is hollow, and the $5.05 trillion valuation is a speculative illusion that threatens global economic stability.