A deep economic irony lies at the heart of the Trump administration’s trade war with its European allies: by weakening the transatlantic alliance, these tariffs could inadvertently strengthen the position of China, the administration’s primary strategic rival. The policy, designed to make America stronger, could end up achieving the opposite on the global stage.
The current dispute is consuming vast amounts of political and economic capital. The US is locked in a conflict with the UK over pharmaceuticals and with Germany over trucks. This infighting prevents the Western allies from forming a united front to address the more significant, long-term challenges posed by China’s state-led economic model, such as intellectual property theft and unfair subsidies.
Furthermore, the tariffs are pushing European nations to diversify their trade relationships. If the US market becomes unreliable and hostile, European companies will have a greater incentive to deepen their engagement with China and other Asian markets. This could lead to a gradual reorientation of global trade that benefits Beijing at Washington’s expense.
The policy also damages the US’s credibility as the leader of the global free-trade system. By engaging in aggressive protectionism against its own partners, the US creates a vacuum that China is eager to fill, positioning itself as a champion of globalization and international cooperation, however disingenuously.
In the quest to win smaller battles against its own allies, the US risks losing the larger strategic war. The economic irony is that the “America First” policy, by isolating the US from its friends, could ultimately leave America more alone and less influential in a world where China’s power continues to grow.