A major new economic report serves as a stark reality check for Washington, spelling out the direct and damaging economic costs of recent US policies on trade and immigration. While the global outlook is complex, the analysis repeatedly singles out US actions as a primary source of risk and a key reason for its “dim” long-term forecast.
On trade, the report makes it clear that the full, negative impact of tariffs initiated by the Trump administration is still to come. It argues that these protectionist measures will ultimately depress business investment not just in the US, but around the world, acting as a significant drag on global growth.
On immigration, the reality check is even more direct. The report quantifies the potential damage to the US itself, projecting a GDP loss of between 0.3% and 0.7% from its own crackdown. It also warns that these policies will fuel inflation in key sectors, a direct cost that will be felt by American consumers.
This critical assessment comes as policymakers gather in Washington for annual meetings. The report’s findings will undoubtedly shape discussions about the US role in the global economy and the consequences of its “America First” approach.
While the global growth forecast for 2025 was upgraded to 3.2%, this is presented as a temporary reprieve. The long-term message directed at Washington is that its policy choices have a high price, and the bill is coming due for both the US and the world.